The biennial Dubai Airshow opened today with Middle East carriers expected to announce tens of billions of dollars in aircraft orders. Headlining the show is hometown carrier Emirates, which is close to finalizing a deal for up to 90 Boeing 777X wide-body jets worth around $40 billion. The massive order will provide a boost to the delayed Boeing 777X program, now not expected to enter service until 2025.
77777X Program Facing Uncertainty
The 777X order comes despite ongoing uncertainty surrounding the schedule for the world’s largest twin-engine jetliner. Sources indicate risks still remain weighted toward further delays as Boeing works to meet tightened certification requirements instituted following the 737 MAX crashes. However, Boeing insists there has been no change to the 2025 timeline.
Lead test pilot Captain Heather Ross stated that while some analysis and paperwork remains to gain full Type Inspection Authorization (TIA) from the FAA, flight testing to date has progressed well. TIA will allow Boeing to commence formal certification flight testing. According to Ross, Boeing has already gone beyond the small subset of tests required by regulators in its extensive test program so far. Recent milestones include minimum-unstick testing at Edwards Air Force Base.
Upcoming TIA May Repeat Existing Tests
Ross noted that upcoming TIA may require repeating certain tests like takeoff performance that Boeing has already completed. However, Boeing will get credit for much of the work done. After TIA, route proving with airline crews and extended twin-engine operations testing are still needed. But the recent 15 hour 40 minute flight from Seattle to Dubai demonstrated the aircraft’s extended operations capabilities.
777X Showcases New Technologies
Despite being certified as a 777 derivative, the 777X incorporates extensive technology updates. The cockpit features touchscreen controls with turbulence mitigation. While legacy hydraulics, electric and pneumatics systems remain, the fly-by-wire flight controls are evolved from the 787’s system. Electrical load management also draws from the 787. Optional head-up displays and automated starts add to 787 commonality.
The folding wingtips provide added lift while fitting airport gate boxes. Ross stated the wings are physically locked extended during flight operations. Fold capability is disabled and deterrents prevent any attempted extension.
Emirates 777X Order Backlog
Already at 155 Emirates is already the largest 777 operator globally with 155 777X on order. The airline is reportedly finalizing an additional order for several dozen more 777X jets, likely the -9 variant, building on its position as the world’s largest 777 fleet. The new order may also include some Boeing 787 Dream liners as Emirates evaluates options to refresh its widebody fleet.
Competition Growing
The huge Emirates order comes as competition grows both globally and regionally. Turkish Airlines this weekend announced negotiations for up to 600 new jets from Airbus and Boeing to power expansion. The airline could announce at least part of that massive order at the show. Industry sources called it a bold move that increases competition in Emirates’ backyard. Closer to home, new Saudi budget carrier Riyadh Air is rumored to soon pick either Airbus or Boeing for its own narrowbody order.
Travel Impacted by Gaza Conflict
The Dubai Airshow takes place against the backdrop of the conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. Air travel demand to the Middle East has dropped as airspace closures force longer flight times. ForwardKeys analysts say bookings to the region have fallen 26% since early October. However, analysts expect the instability to also bolster regional defense spending and weapons orders. But few major arms deals are anticipated to be announced this week.
Emirates 777X Order Confirms Market Recovery
Despite headwinds, the mammoth Emirates 777X order confirms a continued market recovery with airlines looking to renew fleets sidelined by the pandemic. Industry officials estimate current stealth negotiations worldwide could produce orders for 700-800 jets in Dubai, split between 200-300 widebodies and 500 narrowbodies. The health of those order books depends on the outcome of intense last-minute jockeying underway. By snagging this 777X order, Boeing has ensured the Dubai Airshow will kick off the post-pandemic recovery in style.
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